Latter, korea war action again and again, present aggression state, make Korea peninsula condition warms up unexpectedly again. On October 24, han beautiful two countries held security consultation the 44th times, new cognizance Korea is two countries " the biggest menace " , negotiate what before building delicacy of hold office at court to fire missile, undertake hitting to its " kill and wound catenary system " . On October 25, korea held those who cover Korea whole area " protect national army to act " , ginseng perform personnel to reach 240 thousand person, cover Han Jun each army services and constabulary system.
This month earlier moment, han beautiful two countries is reached consistent, the United States agrees with Korea to extend ballistic missile range by present 300 kilometers to 800 kilometers, cover Korea whole area in order to realize blow limits, korea navy also announces will large-scale expansion is large-scale naval ships army. Action of a series of aggression of Korea war caused the strong reaction of Korea, even a few scholars of Korea home also think, korea is going " the road of militaristic " , korea peninsula is likely also because of this breed goes new, bigger crisis.
Korea aggressive backside has deep idea
After Jin Zhengen of Korea new leader assumes office, holding to " first stratocracy is treated " while, will more energy is thrown in expanding economy, toward Han Guan the department also appeared brief and god-given relatively halcyon period. Korea breaks calm actively however of late, send force on the military affairs continuously, the backside of aggressive, korea is having his strategy to think.
Above all, northeast inferior whole installs total pressure to stretch tight closely is Korea war action again and again big setting. Since a period, northeast inferior the country because islands and marine conflict, those contradicts to upgrade continuously here. Increase martial actual strength, choose in order to ensure with the strategy with consolidate self interest has become each states the mainest. Han Fang thinks, toward Han Jian conventional pulling force does not have a bit to alleviate, new leader Jin Zhengen still exists to the uncertainty of Han policy high risk. spring pool
In should want menace to be being given priority to with Korea while, han Ri alone of the island contend for show the sign that upgrade this year, korea do one's best strengthens military strength to browbeat in order to answer a variety of likely safety. The missile range after Korea expands this covered Korea whole area not only, and covered China, Japan and Russia part area. Senior official Ceng Zhiyan points out Korea army without concealing 12 volt adaptor car anything, the long-term goal that Korea navy makes large battleship is to contend Japanese maritime militia. Guan Jinxing of minister of Korea diplomacy have trade relations shine also express publicly recently, northeast inferior still have essential factor of many safe risks, of Chinese economy growth and martial consequence add force to get northeast inferior safety and economic domain produce change ceaselessly, between speech suggestive " Chinese menace " .
Next, korea intent directs foundation of ability matting actual strength to form independence to fight. All the time since, beautiful Han military affairs fights mediumly federally director advantageous position is American place forestall, korea is in fight kink contradicts all the time on the issue that leads authority. On one hand, fight director advantageous position is state sovereignty substantially is indicative, korea hopes to be able to realize independence to fight all the time direct. On the other hand, korea has to the U.S. Army on safe defense great depend on, it is afraid also call in fight after direct counterpoises, the U.S 15 pin vga . Army is assisted in the military affairs on can appear become loose, in the meantime, korea fights to the independence of oneself conduct competence is not self-confident also.
According to Han Mei's negotiation, beautiful square original plan fights at was being turned over to Han Fang 2012 direct counterpoises, but because Li Mingbo government is own " ability does not reachcapture " , and after will turning over time to delay, come 2015. Face pressing time node, korea do one's best advances actual strength of integral military affairs quickly, feel final to call in and control fight the matting that directs authority to do actual strength to go up, from the point of this one angle, korea still meets those who more enhances martial actual strength regard as in future.
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Finally, those who regard American return Asia-Pacific as the strategy is important one annulus, han Mei is in actual strength of aggrandizement military affairs, consolidate federal concern is photogenic each other rely heavily on sb's service. The United States starts the strategy oneself east since moving, ceaseless use ruse is in whole Asia-Pacific area layout, among them, divide the gimmick that is its time-tested through instigating area pulling force will be added for oneself. Northeastern inferior direction, korea and Japan are the United States' most important both wings. The United States is have the aid of first conflict of Sino-Japanese Diaoyu Island, the military affairs that increases pair of Okinawa and Guam base is devoted, make Japan into its whole world guide systematic Asia-Pacific prevents a bank the first times instead.
All the time since, korea guides instead in American Asia-Pacific in the strategy not active, even start all over again, introduced Russia guide instead technology, devoting oneself to the low layer that builds independence to turn over conductor is. The United States carries the conventional pulling force of Korea peninsula, while supportive Korea promotes military strength, consolidate federal concern, reduce the centrifugal liability of Korea. And the defends ability also is Korea pressing demand that lean United States strengthens oneself, beautiful Han Ke calls to be used each other, each takes what he needs.
Erupt new strife is not exaggerate sth just to scare people
The martial action of Korea aggressive makes peninsula condition returns the tight situation of on the verge of breaking out again. From the point of the strategic motive of Han face two countries, the peninsula erupts new strife brushs a warlike scintilla even is not exaggerate sth just to scare people.
From the point of Korea respect, "In order to exceed strong answer strong " the strategy that all along is Korea is traditional, and the will that Korea has anticipate the enemy and bravery soul, won't tolerate absolutely the military affairs of Korea is provoked. Not long ago, korea folk group " face civilian couplet " try to send out to Korea handbill of 200 thousand pieces of psywar, very severe the earth's surface shows Korea, will " do not make a warning " area of Lin Jinge of Korea of blow of direct military affairs. Be in same time, korea expedited 4 MiG battleplan directly, negotiate Korea army set " tactical action line " , xiang Nafei comes city in the sky around, your Korea greatly nervous.
Regard new Korea as leader, jin Zhengen age light, qualifications and record of service is shallow, through the military affairs tough measure answers Korea is one establishs absolutely authority, consolidate internally solid is in office position, reveal external ironhanded the quick passage with ability. Observation home points out, jin Zhengen appears on the stage beginning has been revealed gave tough stance. Among them, an important token is Korea media carry surely to in former years in the editorial 2012 " denuclearize of implementation Korea peninsula " the word was not carried, however U.S. Army of bring up satin pjs for girls again is " force of the force with which sth breaks out outside aggressive sex " , emphasize " the pressing requirement the most popular 12 volt adaptor that the war that prevents war hawk of inside and outside instigates is current condition " , put forward to want " the biggest obstacle of peace of peninsula of block up Korea -- the Southern Dynasties of evacuate of American aggressor troops is bright " . memory card digital cameras
Come one year, jin Zhengen makes an on-the-spot investigation and visit most is army, he inspected the path austral the 4th army group, Yellow Sea to be opposite early or late enemy boundary of military affairs of Han of fight dagger army, face the unit of a gleam of such as artillerist of board door inn. Even Korea media says, jin Zhengen pays attention to the martial ability that shows his very much, in incident of bombard of the island that delay level ground, be Jin Zhengen undertook martial deploy personally. In addition, korea president general election draws near, in such sensitive hour, any give the impression of weakness of Korea give priority to party of new nation of Korea of Zhang Duichao strong possibly to add cent, korea hits morale of new nation party with strong operation, influence Korea politics takes the may actual existence of situation.
From the point of Korea respect, tenure of office of Li Mingbo's president will end in Feburary at next year, general election of president of Korea drawing near, this will be Korea to government strategy delicate period. On one hand, the Li Mingbo that leaves off his post soon is in office pressure is decreased greatly, li Mingbo considers more will be historical opinion. From " the day brings naval vessel incident " to " incident of Yan Ping island " , li Mingbo is thought " should provoke not do one's best to Korea " . Li Mingbo ever also clutched wrist to express on state conference, when bombard of the island that delay level ground, korea army did not give strong fight back, this makes him all one's life regretful. So, li Mingbo is in be in office ending phase is begun to Korea more strong war action, in order to sign up for the enemy of one arrow, the possibility that redeems political reputation cannot eliminate.
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On the other hand, the new nation party that Li Mingbo carries out strong to Chao Jiang action to be able to be back adds cent in the presidential general election in next year. This year in the Korea parliament vote first half of the year, ministerial new nation party is great get victory, this makes clear greatly, korea people support adopts tough policy to face, especially new the Jin Zhengen that appear on the stage is opposite on Han strategy still not Anacreontic, this increased uncertainty to the psychology of Korea people. Li Mingbo pursues the conservative state of mind that is helpful for forcedly to Chao Jiang catering to Korea people.
From this, stem from the st 12 volt adaptor plug rategic interest of oneself, the both sides of direct pulling force of Korea peninsula is not repellent strong, have the motive of conflict and desire even. Below such strategic air, face Han erupts new attrition evolves into the possibility that is bigger conflict to rise greatly even, and as good as of action of the aggression of Korea war plays with fire at be by ammunition depot.
Northeast inferior security bureau state of affairs will be more intricate
North the best selling satin pjs east inferior because security bureau situation is interweaving all sorts of complex new old contradiction this very flimsy already, korea this aggression martial action makes air of Korea peninsula insecurity upgrades quickly not only, and make probably in deeper strategic level northeast inferior, the safe environment of whole even Asia-Pacific worsens continuously.
One of, will develop nuclear fierce to rise to suffer the effect to catalysis to Korea. Korea of excel of Korea comprehensive strength, again beautiful Han serves as backer federally, korea one and the Korea that actual strength of again aggrandizement military affairs can make lack safe sense originally only with more extreme means will realize a military affairs to balance, korea pushs nuclear fierce plan more sturdily probably.
Normally, the strategy that the outside thinks Korea develops nuclear connecting with the boxing skill generally is contained quite the colour of the strategic psywar of degree. But column of stannum of ginger of the first pair of photograph once expressed Korea clearly, korea " development nuke is not to abandon " . A series of strategy measure that contact Korea to go up in nuclear problem, the nuclear fierce of Korea plans to be in substantially probable not be a kind of swashbuckling politics card, however solid dozen of real war strategy. If beautiful Han increases Korea safety pressure for temporarily political interest ceaselessly, make probably the nuclear strategy of Korea more solidify, the harmonic space of peninsula nucleus problem will more compress, at the appointed time, whole Asia-Pacific safety will face enormous challenge.
Secondly, cause the likelihood Asia-Pacific armament race. While Korea one-sided promotes oneself military affairs actual strength considerably, the United States agrees to revise beautiful Han " missile agreement " relax the missile range of Korea, it is patulous to actual strength of Korea military affairs a kind indulgent, this certainly will has very bad demonstrative effect. Korea guides the amplification of eject Cheng brings bigger safe menace to Korea not only, day of the Russia in giving at the same time also brought greater safe pressure. Mix as a result of historical problem between Han Ri especially territorial dispute, letter of each other of each other politics is flimsy, and latter Japan right-wing interest rises, militaristic tendency has renascent mark. Korea energetically force of aggrandizement missile, naval ships, and the aggravation of situation of Korea peninsula security, break through peaceful constitution probably further to Japan, development attacks sexual weapon with excuse.
Thirdly, the northeast that is full of smell of gunpowder inferior will make the United States diffi 15 pin vga cable cult with pay attention to one's own moral uplift without thought of others. All the time since, the United States is to churn northeast inferior what security bureau sit 15 pin vga cable to hdmi uation complications is important shove a hand, the United States is good at in the dare the environment of each square measurable insecurity falls seek profit in pull sb's chestnuts out of the fire, chaos. However, at present Korea peninsula is immersed in doubt of extreme politics each other already deeply to stimulate armament race, armament race aggravate in the vicious circle of doubt of each other each other, and this kind of vicious circle has been been in probably erupt the critical condition of conflict. Of beautiful Han, beautiful during the day one-way and affined although relatively mature, but those still is put in such and such contradiction here, interweaving plus Korea peninsula complex big country is deeply concerned, once peninsula condition appears out of cont 15 pin vga to usb rol, what the United States harvests is " interest " or " cost " still be an enormous unsolved problem.
(Unit of writer of wave of Lv Zhengtao ginger: The liberation army some research center)
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